Loot LedgerFortnite chest loot odds depend on what reward you mean and the rules of the mode and chest you are opening. Loot Ledger does not supply a verified current loot table. Instead, the chest reward probability calculator lets you explore a per-chest chance you choose.
Every 5% example on this site is hypothetical. It is not an official rate for a weapon rarity, chest type, item, or Fortnite season. Do not interpret it as a claim about the current game.
Calculate the chance of at least one reward
If each chest independently has probability p of a chosen reward, the probability of no reward in one chest is 1 − p. Across n independent chests, the probability of no reward is (1 − p)n. Subtract that result from one:
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)n
Enter a percentage from 0 to 100 in the calculator. A 5% chance is p = 0.05 in the formula. The chest count can be any whole number from 0 to 999,999.
Worked examples with a hypothetical 5% chance
| Chests | At least one reward | Expected rewards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.00% | 0.05 |
| 10 | 40.13% | 0.50 |
| 20 | 64.15% | 1.00 |
| 50 | 92.31% | 2.50 |
| 100 | 99.41% | 5.00 |
Expected rewards equals n × p. For 20 chests at 5%, the expected count is one, yet there is still a 35.85% chance of no desired reward. An average does not describe what every player receives.
Does a long streak improve the next chest?
In this fixed, independent model, no. Even after many misses, the next chest still has the same assumed chance. The calculator models a group of openings; it does not predict the next outcome or model a pity system.
When this model does not apply
The formula assumes the same chance on every opening and independence between openings. Changing loot pools, chest types, conditional rewards, event rules, guaranteed drops, or dependent outcomes can invalidate those assumptions. The tool cannot verify them.
At 0 chests, the chance of at least one reward is 0%. A 0% per-chest chance stays 0%; a 100% chance reaches 100% after at least one chest. Very large results may round close to 100%, which is not a guarantee when p is below one.
Data sources and current game information
The counter uses your manual entries. The probability calculator uses only your inputs and the formula shown above. No season-specific Fortnite drop rates are sourced or updated here. Consult Fortnite news and current in-game information for gameplay changes; the linked news page is not the source of our hypothetical 5% example.
Keep the model separate from your actual records: saved chest tracking shows what you counted, while the calculator shows what assumptions imply.